Sichuan Jiuniu 3-4 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sichuan Jiuniu face Yunnan Yukun.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu welcome Yunnan Yukun to Longquanyi Stadium in Super League (matchday 3). Kick-off is Friday 28 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.76 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.930 / defence 1.032 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.351. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 32 games and Yunnan Yukun's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 25%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Yunnan Yukun 4.02. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Sichuan Jiuniu 32 games, Yunnan Yukun 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, matchday 3 | Venue: Longquanyi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.76 / Yunnan Yukun 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.930 / def 1.032 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Yunnan Yukun xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun FAQs
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Friday 28 March 2025 at Longquanyi Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Sichuan Jiuniu 3 - 4 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Longquanyi Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun is a Super League fixture (matchday 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 50% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sichuan Jiuniu's attack at 0.93x the league average against Yunnan Yukun's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 32 games and Yunnan Yukun's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.00
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.95
1.19
Yunnan Yukun xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
4%
23.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.19 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Sichuan Jiuniu (Home) vs Yunnan Yukun (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Yunnan Yukun have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
4
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Yunnan Yukun have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Yunnan Yukun 4-3 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-4 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.76 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.19 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 25%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Yunnan Yukun win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.