Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 42%, yet in-form Shijiazhuang Y. J. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Cangzhou Stadium to face Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 June 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 2W 5D 3L at Cangzhou Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cangzhou Stadium this season.
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Shanghai Shenhua's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 1 for Shanghai Shenhua and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus Shanghai Shenhua 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48% | Shanghai Shenhua 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.16 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.991 / defence 1.050 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.049 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.297. Data: 44 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 44 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 42%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shijiazhuang Y. J. (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Shanghai Shenhua 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.16 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.991 / def 1.050 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.049 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Shanghai Shenhua xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 29% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (4 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.99x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.05x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
29%
3.45
30%
3.39
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.59
1.43
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
7%
14.42
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.43 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 17W 17D 22L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 14L across 56 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 8W 11D 9L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 10W 10D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.36 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 24W 18D 14L in their last 56 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.25 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 0-5 on 22 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-5 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39%, Shanghai Shenhua 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 39% for Shanghai Shenhua.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 57% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 39% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.16 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.43 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 42%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%, Shanghai Shenhua 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.