Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Henan Jianye travel to Tianhe Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 April 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.03 xG and Henan Jianye 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.975 / defence 1.150 | Henan Jianye attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 1.613. Data: 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 1 Henan Jianye games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 47%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Henan Jianye 2.13. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Apr 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.03 / Henan Jianye 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.975 / def 1.150 | Henan Jianye attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.917 / away 1.613 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Henan Jianye xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 27 April 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 22% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.97x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
22%
4.65
32%
3.16
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.60
1.58
Henan Jianye xG
4.65
22%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
4%
22.49
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.58 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Pre-Season
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Henan Jianye won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
5
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2024, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.03 xG and Henan Jianye 1.58 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Henan Jianye attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 47%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.