Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-3 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Shenzhen Ruby FC take on Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda meet at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 29 June 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2022, ended 2–1 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 59% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64% | Tianjin Teda 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.05 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.958 / defence 0.928 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.949 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.115. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 20 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 20 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 35% | Tianjin Teda 31%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Tianjin Teda 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% | Tianjin Teda 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jun 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 35% | Tianjin Teda 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.05 / Tianjin Teda 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.958 / def 0.928 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.949 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Tianjin Teda xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 29 June 2022 at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 3 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 34% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.95x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
35%
2.85
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.04
0.98
Tianjin Teda xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0.98 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 5D 8L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tianjin Teda sit at 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 4W 3D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Tianjin Teda have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.82 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 games (1.45 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2023, when Tianjin Teda 3-3 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shenzhen Ruby FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 46%, Tianjin Teda 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 27% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 36%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 46% of games; Tianjin Teda in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 36% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 27% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-3 at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.05 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.98 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tianjin Teda outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.95 / defence 0.77, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 35% | Tianjin Teda 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%, Tianjin Teda 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Tianjin Teda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.