Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-0 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Wuyuan River Stadium to face Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Super League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at Wuyuan River Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shanghai Shenhua are 1.20 PPG clear of Shenzhen Ruby FC in recent Super League fixtures (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Shenzhen Ruby FC half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 58% versus Shanghai Shenhua 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 63% | Shanghai Shenhua 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.880 / defence 1.202 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.120 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.333. Data: 33 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 33 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 21% | Draw 24% | Shanghai Shenhua 55%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 21% | Draw 24% | Shanghai Shenhua 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.880 / def 1.202 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.120 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Shanghai Shenhua xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 21% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.12x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
21%
4.71
24%
4.24
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.79
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.71
21%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
17%
6.02
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
4%
28.38
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.79 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 15W 7D 19L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 21W 13D 7L from 41 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 7W 6D 5L from 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.49 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 15W 7D 19L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 21W 13D 7L in their last 41 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 on 9 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
3
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2023, when Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 44%, Shanghai Shenhua 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 39% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 61% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 39% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shenzhen Ruby FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua finished level at 0-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.79 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shanghai Shenhua landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 21% | Draw 24% | Shanghai Shenhua 55%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 63%, Shanghai Shenhua 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (41 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (41 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.