SHANGHAI SIPG 5-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 10 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.10 for Changchun Yatai. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Historically, SHANGHAI SIPG have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Changchun Yatai managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 50% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.397 / defence 1.010 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.897 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.419. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 40 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 55% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 23%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Changchun Yatai 4.35. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Changchun Yatai 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 55% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08 / Changchun Yatai 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.397 / def 1.010 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.897 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Changchun Yatai xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
SHANGHAI SIPG 5 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 55% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
Record (6 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 4W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.40x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.90x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.50
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.37
1.28
Changchun Yatai xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
3%
35.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.28 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 39W 11D 14L from 64 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 21W 20D 23L across 64 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 19W 6D 7L from 32 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 10W 10D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.45 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 11D 14L in their last 64 games (2.00 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Changchun Yatai away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 1.97 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.25 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 18 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 53%, Changchun Yatai 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 56% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 53% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 56% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Changchun Yatai 5-2 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.28 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.40 / defence 1.01 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 55% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 23%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.