Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Shanghai Shenhua take on Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda meet at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 August 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 2W 3D 1L at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Tianjin Teda (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 0W 3D 2L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Shanghai Shenhua's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Tianjin Teda's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shanghai Shenhua 67% and Tianjin Teda 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Tianjin Teda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 0.95 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.827 / defence 1.068 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.642 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.295. Data: 12 Shanghai Shenhua games / 12 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 38% | Tianjin Teda 29%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | Tianjin Teda 3.45. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 67% | Tianjin Teda 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Aug 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 38% | Tianjin Teda 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 0.95 / Tianjin Teda 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.827 / def 1.068 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.642 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Tianjin Teda xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:30 on Thursday 12 August 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 33% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 29% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (0.83) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.64x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.05
38%
2.63
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
1.84
0.89
Tianjin Teda xG
3.05
33%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.41
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 14.1 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.89 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 5W 4D 3L from 12 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 7L across 12 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 0W 3D 2L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.92 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Tianjin Teda in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.20 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 60%, Tianjin Teda 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Shanghai Shenhua and 20% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 40%; Shanghai Shenhua have failed to score in 40% of games; Tianjin Teda in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 40% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 20% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Tianjin Teda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Tianjin Teda 1-0 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 0.95 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.89 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.83 / defence 1.07 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.64 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 38% | Tianjin Teda 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Tianjin Teda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.