Shandong Luneng 4-3 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Shandong Luneng welcome Yunnan Yukun to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Shandong Luneng) versus 1.50 (Yunnan Yukun). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Shandong Luneng have won 0, Yunnan Yukun 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–4 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Yunnan Yukun trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shandong Luneng 72% and Yunnan Yukun 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shandong Luneng 74% | Yunnan Yukun 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.17 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.199 / defence 0.998 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.111 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.359. Data: 47 Shandong Luneng games / 47 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 53% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 27%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Yunnan Yukun 3.70. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 53% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 90% | Yunnan Yukun 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 53% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.17 / Yunnan Yukun 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.199 / def 0.998 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.111 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Yunnan Yukun xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 10 July 2026 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 3 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 53% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (3 meetings): Shandong Luneng 0W | Draws 1 | Yunnan Yukun 2W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Yunnan Yukun's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
53%
1.90
21%
4.85
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.68
1.51
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
11%
8.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
3%
32.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.51 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 47 games, going 23W 11D 13L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yunnan Yukun sit at 1.40 PPG from 47 outings (18W 12D 17L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shandong Luneng on 1.70 PPG, Yunnan Yukun on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 14W 6D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Yunnan Yukun have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.66 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 74%.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 23W 11D 13L in their last 47 games (1.70 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 18W 12D 17L in their last 47 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.09 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Yunnan Yukun won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 1, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 4-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shandong Luneng at 70%, Yunnan Yukun at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Shandong Luneng and 65% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Shandong Luneng's games and 83% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 65% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Yunnan Yukun 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Yunnan Yukun 4-3 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.17 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.51 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.20 / defence 1.00 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.11 / defence 1.06, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 53% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 27%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 74%, Yunnan Yukun 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.70 PPG, Yunnan Yukun 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.