Shandong Luneng 4-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.

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Analysis

Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Friday 11 April 2025 at 13:35 UK time.

Current Form

Shandong Luneng's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Shandong Luneng's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Shandong Luneng. A 0.60 PPG lead over Sichuan Jiuniu (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Shandong Luneng edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Shandong Luneng 4–1 Sichuan Jiuniu — a Shandong Luneng win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 57% | Sichuan Jiuniu 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.72 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.955 / defence 0.999 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.793 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.460. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 35 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 35.

Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 28% | Sichuan Jiuniu 24%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.06 | Draw 3.59 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.24. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 50% (last 10 home games) | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% (last 10 away games).

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