Shandong Luneng 3-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shandong Luneng face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Shandong Luneng (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shandong Luneng at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hangzhou Greentown's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 2.40 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Shandong Luneng, 2 for Hangzhou Greentown and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2023, ended Shandong Luneng 1–2 Hangzhou Greentown — a Hangzhou Greentown win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 51% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 62% | Hangzhou Greentown 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.26 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.318 / defence 1.043 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.745 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.500. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack rating of 1.318 — their 2.26 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 43 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 43.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 61% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 17%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.64 | Draw 4.60 | Hangzhou Greentown 5.75. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.26 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 50% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 14 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 61% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Shandong Luneng 2.26 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.318 / def 1.043 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.745 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Hangzhou Greentown xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shandong Luneng 3 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 14) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 61% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.32x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.74x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 43 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.60
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.42
1.16
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
10%
9.56
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
2%
54.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.16 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 63 games, going 40W 13D 10L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.86 PPG from 63 outings (33W 18D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.11 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 1.86 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 26W 3D 2L across their last 31 home games, a 2.61 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.11 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.74 points per game from their last 31 away games (14W 12D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 0.98 conceded. Shandong Luneng's scoring rate against Hangzhou Greentown's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 40W 13D 10L in their last 63 games (2.11 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.61 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown, the earliest from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 5-0 Hangzhou Greentown on 17 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 5, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Shandong Luneng 5-0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 42%, Hangzhou Greentown 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Shandong Luneng and 61% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Shandong Luneng's games and 74% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 61% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 77% of Hangzhou Greentown's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.26 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.16 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.32 / defence 1.04 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.74 / defence 1.11, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 61% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 17%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 62%, Hangzhou Greentown 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 2.11 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.