Shandong Luneng 0-0 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beijing Guoan make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 11:35 UTC.
Current Form
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Beijing Guoan (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Shandong Luneng, 0 for Beijing Guoan and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 3–0 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 61% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.74 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.490 / defence 1.039 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.153 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.206. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.490 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Beijing Guoan's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Shandong Luneng games / 31 Beijing Guoan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 45% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 32%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Beijing Guoan 3.12. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 50% | Beijing Guoan 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 45% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.74 / Beijing Guoan 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.490 / def 1.039 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.153 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Beijing Guoan xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Shandong Luneng 0 - 0 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 45% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan?
Record (4 meetings): Shandong Luneng 2W | Draws 2 | Beijing Guoan 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.49x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.15x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.29
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.19
1.45
Beijing Guoan xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
6%
17.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.45 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 41W 13D 10L from 64 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 17L across 64 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beijing Guoan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 27W 3D 2L from 32 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 15W 8D 9L across 32 trips, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.72 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 41W 13D 10L in their last 64 games (2.12 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.62 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 41%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Shandong Luneng and 66% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 66% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shandong Luneng's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.74 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.45 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.49 / defence 1.04 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.15 / defence 0.80, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 45% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 32%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 61%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.