Qingdao Youth Island 2-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Youth Island face Tianjin Teda.

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Full Analysis

Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Tianjin Teda in Super League (matchday 5). Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 12:30 UK time.

Form

Qingdao Youth Island (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Tianjin Teda have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Qingdao Youth Island against 1.80 for Tianjin Teda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Qingdao Youth Island's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 80% of Tianjin Teda's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Tianjin Teda edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2024, ended Qingdao Youth Island 1–2 Tianjin Teda — a Tianjin Teda win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Qingdao Youth Island goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 63% and Tianjin Teda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 60% | Tianjin Teda 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 2.02 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.197 / defence 1.043 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.027 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.551. Data: built from Qingdao Youth Island's last 34 games and Tianjin Teda's last 34.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 45% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 31%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.22 | Draw 4.13 | Tianjin Teda 3.25. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.02 / 1.66) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Youth Island's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Youth Island 80% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 80% (last 10 away games).

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