Qingdao Youth Island 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island host Hangzhou Greentown at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's home record at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Youth Island are significantly better at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hangzhou Greentown — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Qingdao Youth Island, 1 for Hangzhou Greentown and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 62% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Qingdao Youth Island 58% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.46 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.814 / defence 1.075 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.227 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.817 / away 1.288. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Qingdao Youth Island games / 53 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 32% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 42%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 60% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 32% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.46 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.814 / def 1.075 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.227 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.817 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Hangzhou Greentown xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Qingdao Youth Island 0 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 32% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (3 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 2W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Youth Island's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
32%
3.15
26%
3.84
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
3.16
1.70
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
6%
17.20
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.70 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Youth Island come into this having played 52 games, going 14W 17D 21L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.33 PPG from 52 outings (19W 12D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Youth Island on 1.13 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Qingdao Youth Island's home form reads 8W 11D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (6W 4D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Youth Island come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.92 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 67%.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 14W 17D 21L in their last 52 games (1.13 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.35 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 28 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2024, when Qingdao Youth Island won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Qingdao Youth Island
0
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 3-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 62%, Hangzhou Greentown 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 69% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 54% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Qingdao Youth Island's matches and 69% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Youth Island 0-2 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.46 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.70 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.23 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 32% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 42%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 58%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.13 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.