Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Beijing Guoan travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 13:35 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Beijing Guoan — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Beijing Guoan away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. Beijing Guoan's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Beijing Guoan 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2023, ended Qingdao Jonoon 0–2 Beijing Guoan — a Beijing Guoan win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Beijing Guoan trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Beijing Guoan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Beijing Guoan 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Qingdao Jonoon surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Beijing Guoan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 0.90 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.802 / defence 1.109 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.004 / defence 0.728. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.536. Beijing Guoan bring a tight defence (rating 0.728, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Qingdao Jonoon's projected output down. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 42 games and Beijing Guoan's last 42.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 19% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 56%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 5.34 | Draw 3.94 | Beijing Guoan 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 50% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 away games).

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