Henan Jianye 1-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Nantong Zhiyun in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 21 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Henan Jianye have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Nantong Zhiyun's overall Super League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record: 0W 3D 5L from 8 road trips in Super League this season (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Henan Jianye, 0.80 for Nantong Zhiyun — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Henan Jianye lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Nantong Zhiyun winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 47% versus Nantong Zhiyun 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 24% | Nantong Zhiyun 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.09 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.788 / defence 0.863 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.694 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.204. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Henan Jianye games / 17 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 36% | Nantong Zhiyun 22%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.38 | Draw 2.78 | Nantong Zhiyun 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 50% | Nantong Zhiyun 62%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 36% | Nantong Zhiyun 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Henan Jianye 1.09 / Nantong Zhiyun 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.788 / def 0.863 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.694 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Nantong Zhiyun xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 21 July 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 42% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Henan Jianye and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 0 | Nantong Zhiyun 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.79x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (0.69x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 50/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
42%
2.40
36%
2.74
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
1.81
0.72
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
7%
13.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.72 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 3W 6D 8L from 17 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantong Zhiyun, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 8L across 17 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Henan Jianye against 0.76 for Nantong Zhiyun. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 2W 4D 2L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record stands at 0W 3D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.76 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 7D 8L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.25 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
1
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 0, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Nantong Zhiyun?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Nantong Zhiyun 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Henan Jianye and 25% for Nantong Zhiyun.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye have failed to score in 38% of games; Nantong Zhiyun in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Henan Jianye's games and 62% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 25% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Nantong Zhiyun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Nantong Zhiyun finished level at 1-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.09 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.72 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.79 / defence 0.86 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.69 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 36% | Nantong Zhiyun 22%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 24%, Nantong Zhiyun 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 0.88 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.