Henan Jianye 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 35%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 9 June 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.70 PPG clear of Henan Jianye in recent Super League fixtures (2.30 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Henan Jianye 2W, Hangzhou Greentown 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 46% versus Hangzhou Greentown 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 54% | Hangzhou Greentown 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.11 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.829 / defence 0.747 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.131 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.257. Henan Jianye's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Henan Jianye games / 44 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 35% | Draw 33% | Hangzhou Greentown 32%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 30% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Jun 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 35% | Draw 33% | Hangzhou Greentown 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Henan Jianye 1.11 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.829 / def 0.747 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.131 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Hangzhou Greentown xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 10:30 on Friday 9 June 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Henan Jianye 2 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 35% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (2 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.83x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.13x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
35%
2.86
33%
3.06
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.17
1.06
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.06 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 35 games, going 17W 8D 10L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.89 PPG from 35 outings (18W 12D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.89 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Henan Jianye's home form reads 10W 2D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.65 points per game from 17 outings (7W 7D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.77 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 17W 8D 10L in their last 35 games (1.69 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 12D 5L in their last 35 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.88 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 47%, Hangzhou Greentown 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Henan Jianye) and 41% (Hangzhou Greentown).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Henan Jianye's games and 65% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 41% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 2-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.11 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.06 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.83 / defence 0.75 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 35% | Draw 33% | Hangzhou Greentown 32%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 54%, Hangzhou Greentown 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.69 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.