Hebei Zhongji 1-6 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 84% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Hebei Zhongji welcome Hangzhou Greentown to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hebei Zhongji stand at 0W 0D 10L from 10 Super League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 3.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game.
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 4W 6D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 1.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hebei Zhongji, 1 for Hangzhou Greentown and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hebei Zhongji in-play and half-time data (28 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 61% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (28 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 39% versus Hangzhou Greentown 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 75% | Hangzhou Greentown 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.78 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 3.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.641 / defence 1.959 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.230 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.351. Hebei Zhongji's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 3.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Hebei Zhongji games / 26 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 5% | Draw 11% | Hangzhou Greentown 84%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 20.00 | Draw 9.09 | Hangzhou Greentown 1.19. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (84%) — a 79pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 84% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hebei Zhongji 40% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 5% | Draw 11% | Hangzhou Greentown 84% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 52% | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.78 / Hangzhou Greentown 3.26 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.641 / def 1.959 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.230 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
3.26
Hangzhou Greentown xG
52%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 26 November 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Hebei Zhongji 1 - 6 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 5% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 84% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (1 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 0W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 3.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hebei Zhongji's attack at 0.64x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 3.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-3 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (9.3%), 0-4 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
5%
19.16
11%
9.35
84%
1.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 4
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
4.04
3.26
Hangzhou Greentown xG
19.16
5%
Home win
9.35
11%
Draw
1.19
84%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
4%
25.95
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
0%
–
38%
2.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 5.4 |
| 1 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 4.2 |
| 2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 3.26 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hebei Zhongji come into this having played 28 games, going 1W 0D 27L for 0.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.79 PPG from 28 outings (13W 11D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.68 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hebei Zhongji's home form reads 1W 0D 11L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.83 points per game from 12 outings (5W 7D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.18 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.61 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 27L in their last 28 games (0.11 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 13W 11D 4L in their last 28 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 0.25 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hebei Zhongji and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 2 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 1-6 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 33%, Hangzhou Greentown 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hebei Zhongji) and 42% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Hangzhou Greentown?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 75% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 42% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Hebei Zhongji 1-6 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.78 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 3.26 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 3.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.64 / defence 1.96 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.23 / defence 0.80, drawn from 40/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 5% | Draw 11% | Hangzhou Greentown 84%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 84%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 75%, Hangzhou Greentown 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (28 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (28 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 3.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.