Hangzhou Greentown 6-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 77% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center to take on Hangzhou Greentown in Super League (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 07:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Hangzhou Greentown — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.

Hangzhou Greentown are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Jul 2023, ended Hangzhou Greentown 1–2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a Shijiazhuang Y. J. win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 54% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.57 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.121 / defence 0.791 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.776 / defence 1.505. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.194. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating of 1.505 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Hangzhou Greentown have a tight defence (rating 0.791), which is pulling Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output down. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 61 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 62.

Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Draw 15% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 8%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.30 | Draw 6.84 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 11.95. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (77%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hangzhou Greentown 40% (last 10 home games) | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% (last 10 away games).

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