Dalian Aerbin 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Dalian Aerbin take on Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Aerbin host Beijing Guoan at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 1W 1D 6L from 8 Super League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Dalian Aerbin are significantly better at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Beijing Guoan have recorded 3W 2D 3L from 8 outings — 1.38 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 1W 0D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.38 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Beijing Guoan — 0.88 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.38 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dalian Aerbin, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2021, ended 0–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 38% versus Beijing Guoan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dalian Aerbin 38% | Beijing Guoan 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.20 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.869 / defence 1.142 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.797 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.023 / away 1.175. Beijing Guoan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Dalian Aerbin games / 8 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 35% | Draw 36% | Beijing Guoan 29%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Beijing Guoan 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Aerbin 50% | Beijing Guoan 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 35% | Draw 36% | Beijing Guoan 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.20 / Beijing Guoan 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.869 / def 1.142 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.797 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.023 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Beijing Guoan xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 35% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.62 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (0.87) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
36%
2.74
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.27
1.07
Beijing Guoan xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.07 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 1D 6L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Dalian Aerbin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.12 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Beijing Guoan in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.00 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Beijing Guoan 2-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 50%, Beijing Guoan 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Dalian Aerbin) and 50% (Beijing Guoan).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 50% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 50% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Dalian Aerbin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Dalian Aerbin 0-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.20 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.07 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.80 / defence 1.35, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 35% | Draw 36% | Beijing Guoan 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 38%, Beijing Guoan 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.