Chengdu Better City 0-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Meizhou Kejia travel to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to take on Chengdu Better City. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 June 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chengdu Better City have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.32 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.961 / defence 1.345 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.025 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.145. Data: 4 Chengdu Better City games / 4 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 32% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 43%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Meizhou Kejia 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jun 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 32% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.32 / Meizhou Kejia 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 0.961 / def 1.345 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.025 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Meizhou Kejia xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 10:30 on Monday 20 June 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Chengdu Better City 0 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 32% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W. Chengdu Better City home split: 1.00 PPG from 1 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
32%
3.15
25%
4.02
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.90
1.58
Meizhou Kejia xG
3.15
32%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
7%
15.29
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.58 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 17 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chengdu Better City have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Chengdu Better City won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 6, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2025, when Chengdu Better City 3-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Chengdu Better City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia finished level at 0-0 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.32 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.58 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against Meizhou Kejia attack 1.02 / defence 1.06, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 32% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 43%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.