Beijing Guoan 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beijing Guoan face Shijiazhuang Y. J..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Workers' Stadium to take on Beijing Guoan. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 26 June 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Beijing Guoan at Workers' Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beijing Guoan trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 3.14 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.448 / defence 1.050 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.912 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.415. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.448 — their λ of 3.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Beijing Guoan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Beijing Guoan games / 45 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 72% | Draw 15% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 13%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.39 | Draw 6.67 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (72%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (3.14 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.50 combined xG gives a 83% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 60% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Jun 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 72% | Draw 15% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 71% | xG Beijing Guoan 3.14 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.448 / def 1.050 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.912 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.14
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
71%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Beijing Guoan 4 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 72% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 13% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (5 meetings): Beijing Guoan 3W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.45x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 3.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.5%), 4-1 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
72%
1.38
15%
6.86
13%
7.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
4 – 1
6.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.14
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
4.50
1.36
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.86
15%
Draw
7.72
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
4%
23.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
1%
178.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 3.14 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.36 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 4.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 64 games, going 31W 16D 17L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.17 PPG from 64 outings (19W 18D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 16W 8D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 1.22 points per game from 32 outings (11W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.19 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 games (1.70 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.75 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2023, when Beijing Guoan won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2024, when Beijing Guoan 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 56%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Beijing Guoan and 66% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Beijing Guoan's games and 59% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 66% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 3.14 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.36 xG, a combined 4.50. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.45 / defence 1.05 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.91 / defence 1.39, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 72% | Draw 15% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 13%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.