Beijing Guoan 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Shanghai Shenhua at Workers' Stadium in Super League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 4 August 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Beijing Guoan have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Beijing Guoan have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua — last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shanghai Shenhua — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Beijing Guoan have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Beijing Guoan 1–1 Shanghai Shenhua — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 61% versus Shanghai Shenhua 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 53% | Shanghai Shenhua 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.04 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.236 / defence 0.869 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.271 / defence 0.469. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.320. Shanghai Shenhua bring a tight defence (rating 0.469, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Beijing Guoan's projected output down. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack rating of 1.271, which lifts their away xG to 1.46. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 51 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 51.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 27% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 46%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 3.75 | Draw 3.71 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.16. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 70% (last 10 home games) | Shanghai Shenhua 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, matchday 21 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 August 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 27% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Beijing Guoan 1.04 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.236 / def 0.869 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.271 / def 0.469 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Shanghai Shenhua xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Super League fixture (matchday 21) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 27% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 51 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
27%
3.75
27%
3.71
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.50
1.46
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
6%
16.10
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.46 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 25W 13D 13L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 32W 11D 8L from 51 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.73 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 2.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 25 home games (15W 5D 5L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 15W 5D 5L from their last 25 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.67 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Shanghai Shenhua (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 32W 11D 8L in their last 51 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.00 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 18 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Aug 2026, when Beijing Guoan won Shanghai Shenhua 0-3 Beijing Guoan.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 August 2026: Shanghai Shenhua 0-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 64%, Shanghai Shenhua 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Beijing Guoan) and 44% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 72% of Shanghai Shenhua's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.04 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.46 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.24 / defence 0.87 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.27 / defence 0.47, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 27% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 46%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 53%, Shanghai Shenhua 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.73 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.