Beijing Guoan 1-0 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun meet at Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 15 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Workers' Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.24 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.907 / defence 0.889 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.873 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.222. Data: 40 Beijing Guoan games / 6 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 39% | Draw 37% | Nantong Zhiyun 24%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | Nantong Zhiyun 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 15 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 39% | Draw 37% | Nantong Zhiyun 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.24 / Nantong Zhiyun 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.907 / def 0.889 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.873 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Nantong Zhiyun xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 15 May 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 0 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 39% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Beijing Guoan home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 0.91x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (0.87x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
39%
2.58
37%
2.72
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.18
0.95
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.95 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 5-2 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Nantong Zhiyun?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Nantong Zhiyun 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Nantong Zhiyun 1-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.24 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.95 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nantong Zhiyun landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 39% | Draw 37% | Nantong Zhiyun 24%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.