Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Beijing Guoan take on Hebei Zhongji.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Beijing Guoan welcome Hebei Zhongji to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 July 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Beijing Guoan have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hebei Zhongji stand at 2W 2D 0L from 4 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Hebei Zhongji have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Hebei Zhongji's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Beijing Guoan's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 50% versus Hebei Zhongji 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Beijing Guoan 50% | Hebei Zhongji 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 0.89 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.046 / defence 1.071 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.817 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 0.857 / away 1.107. Data: 4 Beijing Guoan games / 4 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 28% | Draw 40% | Hebei Zhongji 32%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 3.57 | Draw 2.50 | Hebei Zhongji 3.12. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 50% | Hebei Zhongji 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jul 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 28% | Draw 40% | Hebei Zhongji 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG Beijing Guoan 0.89 / Hebei Zhongji 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.046 / def 1.071 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.817 / def 0.995 | league avg home 0.857 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Hebei Zhongji xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 12:30 on Friday 16 July 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 28% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 32% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-W-W. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.05x the league average against Hebei Zhongji's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.59
40%
2.48
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
1.86
0.97
Hebei Zhongji xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.48
40%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 15.1 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.97 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 0D 2L record — L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hebei Zhongji's form line: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hebei Zhongji are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Beijing Guoan.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Hebei Zhongji in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Early Season
Hebei Zhongji
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Beijing Guoan or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2022, when Beijing Guoan won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 50%, Hebei Zhongji 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Beijing Guoan and 0% for Hebei Zhongji.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 50% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 0% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Hebei Zhongji 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Hebei Zhongji 2-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 0.89 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.97 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.82 / defence 0.99, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 28% | Draw 40% | Hebei Zhongji 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 50%, Hebei Zhongji 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hebei Zhongji arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Beijing Guoan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hebei Zhongji shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.