Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union La Calera host Everton de Vina at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 February 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Union La Calera have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union La Calera at 1.00 PPG versus Everton de Vina's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 56% versus Everton de Vina 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | Everton de Vina 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.21 xG and Everton de Vina 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.848 / defence 1.379 | Everton de Vina attack 0.840 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.211. Data: 35 Union La Calera games / 35 Everton de Vina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 30% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 39%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Everton de Vina 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 50% | Everton de Vina 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 30% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Union La Calera 1.21 / Everton de Vina 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.848 / def 1.379 | Everton de Vina attack 0.840 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Everton de Vina xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina part of?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 30% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Union La Calera and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.85x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
30%
3.31
31%
3.28
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.61
1.40
Everton de Vina xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
7%
13.46
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.40 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera come into this having played 32 games, going 15W 6D 11L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (10W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.59 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union La Calera's home form reads 7W 2D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.91 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 15W 6D 11L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Everton de Vina away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.44 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union La Calera's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union La Calera
3
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Everton de Vina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Union La Calera and 25% for Everton de Vina.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 44% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Union La Calera's recent games and 25% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union La Calera and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera and Everton de Vina finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.21 xG and Everton de Vina 1.40 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.85 / defence 1.38 against Everton de Vina attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 30% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 39%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, Everton de Vina 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.59 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.