U. Catolica 1-2 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 42%, yet in-form Universidad de Chile provide a compelling counter-argument — this U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Universidad de Chile travel to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to take on U. Catolica in Primera División (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 23:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, U. Catolica have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
U. Catolica's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — U. Catolica are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Universidad de Chile stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Universidad de Chile have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Universidad de Chile are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for U. Catolica, 2 for Universidad de Chile and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 May 2024, ended U. Catolica 2–1 Universidad de Chile — a U. Catolica win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
U. Catolica trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Universidad de Chile trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 54% versus Universidad de Chile 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 58% | Universidad de Chile 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.60 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.157 / defence 1.038 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.216 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.113. Universidad de Chile have an above-average attack rating of 1.216, which lifts their away xG to 1.40. Data: built from U. Catolica's last 57 games and Universidad de Chile's last 57.
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 42% | Draw 24% | Universidad de Chile 34%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 2.37 | Draw 4.14 | Universidad de Chile 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.60 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates U. Catolica as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Universidad de Chile (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (U. Catolica's last 10 home games and Universidad de Chile's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: U. Catolica 50% (last 10 home games) | Universidad de Chile 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, matchday 28 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 42% | Draw 24% | Universidad de Chile 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG U. Catolica 1.60 / Universidad de Chile 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.157 / def 1.038 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.216 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Universidad de Chile xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile FAQs
What time does U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
U. Catolica 1 - 2 Universidad de Chile.
Where is U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile part of?
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile is a Primera División fixture (matchday 28) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 42% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from U. Catolica's attack rating (1.16) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from U. Catolica's last 57 games and Universidad de Chile's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.14
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
3.01
1.40
Universidad de Chile xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.40 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
U. Catolica's recent record stands at 24W 15D 18L from 57 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Universidad de Chile, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 15L across 57 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: U. Catolica on 1.53 PPG, Universidad de Chile on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, U. Catolica have managed 11W 8D 9L from their last 28 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Universidad de Chile's away record stands at 15W 4D 9L across their last 28 away games, a 1.75 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
U. Catolica are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.51 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Universidad de Chile in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Universidad de Chile
Blended
U. Catolica (Home) vs Universidad de Chile (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
U. Catolica
Blended
Universidad de Chile
Blended
❓ U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile Form FAQs
What form are U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 24W 15D 18L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 28W 14D 15L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Universidad de Chile's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.46 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.75 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Universidad de Chile been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Universidad de Chile in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2022, when U. Catolica won Universidad de Chile 0-3 U. Catolica.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Universidad de Chile specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
U. Catolica
0
Draws
5
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, U. Catolica have won 5, Universidad de Chile have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: U. Catolica 1-0 Universidad de Chile.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 57%, Universidad de Chile 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for U. Catolica and 71% for Universidad de Chile. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of U. Catolica's games and 61% of Universidad de Chile's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of U. Catolica's matches and 71% of Universidad de Chile's.
Do U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 79% of Universidad de Chile's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Universidad de Chile defy the odds to beat U. Catolica 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat U. Catolica 1-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.60 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.40 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.22 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 42% | Draw 24% | Universidad de Chile 34%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Universidad de Chile win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 58%, Universidad de Chile 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.53 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.