U. Catolica 2-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 7 as U. Catolica welcome Everton de Vina to Claro Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Claro Arena, U. Catolica have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Claro Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Everton de Vina — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
U. Catolica carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for U. Catolica, 3 for Everton de Vina and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with U. Catolica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
U. Catolica trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 48% versus Everton de Vina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 45% | Everton de Vina 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.52 xG and Everton de Vina 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.189 / defence 0.891 | Everton de Vina attack 0.970 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.029. Data: 36 U. Catolica games / 36 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 52% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 22%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Everton de Vina 4.55. U. Catolica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 30% | Everton de Vina 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Claro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 52% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG U. Catolica 1.52 / Everton de Vina 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.189 / def 0.891 | Everton de Vina attack 0.970 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Everton de Vina xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kick off?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Claro Arena.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica 2 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Claro Arena.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina part of?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 52% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both U. Catolica and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
Record (9 meetings): U. Catolica 4W | Draws 2 | Everton de Vina 3W.
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 1.19x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.87
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.41
0.89
Everton de Vina xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
5%
20.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.89 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
U. Catolica's recent record stands at 30W 14D 16L from 60 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 25L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours U. Catolica by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, U. Catolica have managed 18W 3D 9L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 9W 5D 16L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
U. Catolica are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Everton de Vina away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.90 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.07 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when U. Catolica won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
3
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when U. Catolica 2-2 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 47%, Everton de Vina 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (U. Catolica) and 60% (Everton de Vina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of U. Catolica's games and 63% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of U. Catolica's matches and 60% of Everton de Vina's.
Do U. Catolica and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
U. Catolica and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica and Everton de Vina finished level at 2-2 at Claro Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.52 xG and Everton de Vina 0.89 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.19 / defence 0.89 against Everton de Vina attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 52% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 22%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 45%, Everton de Vina 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. U. Catolica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.