U. Catolica 4-1 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours U. Catolica (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as U. Catolica face Deportes Copiapo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Deportes Copiapo travel to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida to take on U. Catolica. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 September 2024, 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
U. Catolica — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida, U. Catolica have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Copiapo have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Copiapo's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, U. Catolica have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for U. Catolica, 0 for Deportes Copiapo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
U. Catolica in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 57% versus Deportes Copiapo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 60% | Deportes Copiapo 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 2.13 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.210 / defence 0.959 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.917 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.164. Deportes Copiapo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing U. Catolica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 U. Catolica games / 54 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 63% | Draw 20% | Deportes Copiapo 17%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Deportes Copiapo 5.88. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: U. Catolica 50% | Deportes Copiapo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Sep 2024, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 63% | Draw 20% | Deportes Copiapo 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG U. Catolica 2.13 / Deportes Copiapo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.210 / def 0.959 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.917 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Deportes Copiapo xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 26 September 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo?
U. Catolica 4 - 1 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 63% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (3 meetings): U. Catolica 2W | Draws 1 | Deportes Copiapo 0W.
What form are U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
U. Catolica's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Deportes Copiapo's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Copiapo's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
63%
1.59
20%
4.99
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
3.16
1.02
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
12%
8.44
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
2%
49.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.02 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
U. Catolica come into this having played 53 games, going 22W 15D 16L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Copiapo sit at 1.02 PPG from 53 outings (14W 12D 27L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
U. Catolica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
U. Catolica's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Copiapo have taken 0.58 points per game from 26 outings (3W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Copiapo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
U. Catolica are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.15 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 22W 15D 16L in their last 53 games (1.53 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.46 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
U. Catolica have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when U. Catolica won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Deportes Copiapo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
U. Catolica
1
Draws
0
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 3, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2024, when U. Catolica 4-1 Deportes Copiapo.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 58%, Deportes Copiapo 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (U. Catolica) and 42% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica have failed to score in 27% of games; Deportes Copiapo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Deportes Copiapo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 46% of Deportes Copiapo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of U. Catolica's recent games and 42% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant U. Catolica run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Deportes Copiapo 4-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 2.13 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.02 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.21 / defence 0.96 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 63% | Draw 20% | Deportes Copiapo 17%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 60%, Deportes Copiapo 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.