U. Catolica 1-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as U. Catolica face Coquimbo Unido.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido meet at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Primera División (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
U. Catolica (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
U. Catolica at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — U. Catolica are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Coquimbo Unido's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Coquimbo Unido away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for U. Catolica against 0.70 for Coquimbo Unido. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from U. Catolica's last 10 home games and Coquimbo Unido's last 10 away games) — U. Catolica have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Coquimbo Unido in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for U. Catolica, 2 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Jun 2024, ended U. Catolica 0–2 Coquimbo Unido — a Coquimbo Unido win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
U. Catolica — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 56% versus Coquimbo Unido 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 59% | Coquimbo Unido 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.87 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.101 / defence 1.027 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.828 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.215. Data: built from U. Catolica's last 59 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 59.
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 57% | Draw 22% | Coquimbo Unido 21%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.75 | Draw 4.46 | Coquimbo Unido 4.86. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (U. Catolica's last 10 home games and Coquimbo Unido's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: U. Catolica 60% (last 10 home games) | Coquimbo Unido 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, matchday 30 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 57% | Draw 22% | Coquimbo Unido 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG U. Catolica 1.87 / Coquimbo Unido 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.101 / def 1.027 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.828 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Coquimbo Unido xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido FAQs
What time does U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
U. Catolica 1 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido is a Primera División fixture (matchday 30) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 57% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
U. Catolica's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.83x) against U. Catolica's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from U. Catolica's last 59 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.46
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.91
1.03
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
3%
31.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.03 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
U. Catolica come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 16D 19L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 1.56 PPG from 59 outings (26W 14D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for U. Catolica against 1.56 for Coquimbo Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
U. Catolica's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 29 away games (10W 6D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
U. Catolica are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.36 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
U. Catolica (Home) vs Coquimbo Unido (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
U. Catolica
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido Form FAQs
What form are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 26W 14D 19L in their last 59 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.41 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 26 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
U. Catolica have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coquimbo Unido won U. Catolica 0-3 Coquimbo Unido on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, U. Catolica have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
U. Catolica
0
Draws
5
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, U. Catolica have won 5, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 August 2026: Coquimbo Unido 1-2 U. Catolica.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 59%, Coquimbo Unido 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (U. Catolica) and 48% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica have failed to score in 28% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of U. Catolica's games and 59% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of U. Catolica's recent games and 48% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 55% of Coquimbo Unido's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat U. Catolica 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat U. Catolica 1-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.87 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.03 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. U. Catolica fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 57% | Draw 22% | Coquimbo Unido 21%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 59%, Coquimbo Unido 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.49 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.