Palestino 0-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palestino (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Palestino face Union Espanola.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palestino host Union Espanola at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Primera División (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 24 May 2024 at 21:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Palestino have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palestino's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Union Espanola — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union Espanola away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Palestino have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Palestino hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Union Espanola and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Palestino 2–1 Union Espanola — a Palestino win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Palestino and goals — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Palestino trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Union Espanola trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 52% versus Union Espanola 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 52% | Union Espanola 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 2.09 xG and Union Espanola 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.159 / defence 0.816 | Union Espanola attack 0.980 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.416. Data: built from Palestino's last 42 games and Union Espanola's last 42.
Result probabilities: Palestino 59% | Draw 21% | Union Espanola 20%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 1.68 | Draw 4.84 | Union Espanola 5.03. The model has a clear lean to Palestino (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palestino as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Palestino 40% (last 10 home games) | Union Espanola 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, matchday 14 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 59% | Draw 21% | Union Espanola 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Palestino 2.09 / Union Espanola 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.159 / def 0.816 | Union Espanola attack 0.980 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Palestino (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Union Espanola xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palestino vs Union Espanola FAQs
What time does Palestino vs Union Espanola kick off?
Palestino vs Union Espanola kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Friday 24 May 2024 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Palestino 0 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is Palestino vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Union Espanola part of?
Palestino vs Union Espanola is a Primera División fixture (matchday 14) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 59% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Palestino and Union Espanola will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Palestino vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palestino's attack rating (1.16) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palestino's last 42 games and Union Espanola's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.84
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Palestino xG
Total xG
3.23
1.13
Union Espanola xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
2%
40.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palestino vs Union Espanola Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Palestino and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Palestino and 1.13 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palestino come into this having played 60 games, going 26W 17D 17L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.27 PPG from 60 outings (20W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palestino on 1.58 PPG, Union Espanola on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Palestino's home form reads 17W 6D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palestino are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
Palestino (Home) vs Union Espanola (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palestino
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Palestino vs Union Espanola Form FAQs
What form are Palestino and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 26W 17D 17L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Union Espanola away?
Palestino's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.90 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Palestino or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 27 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Palestino have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Feb 2025, when Palestino won Union Espanola 0-3 Palestino.
Palestino's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Palestino
1
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Palestino vs Union Espanola H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Union Espanola?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Palestino have won 7, Union Espanola have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Palestino and Union Espanola last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2025: Palestino 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Union Espanola?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 53%, Union Espanola 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palestino) and 47% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Union Espanola in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palestino vs Union Espanola Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palestino and Union Espanola matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Palestino's recent matches and 47% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palestino and Union Espanola matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Palestino's recent games and 47% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Union Espanola matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Palestino's recent matches and 77% of Union Espanola's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Espanola defy the odds to beat Palestino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Palestino 0-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 2.09 xG and Union Espanola 1.13 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palestino fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Union Espanola attack 0.98 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 59% | Draw 21% | Union Espanola 20%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Union Espanola win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 52%, Union Espanola 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.58 PPG, Union Espanola 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Espanola (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.