Palestino 1-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Palestino face Nublense.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Palestino welcome Nublense to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Primera División (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 1 September 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Palestino have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Palestino have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Palestino are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nublense — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Nublense's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Palestino at 1.20 PPG versus Nublense's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Palestino have won 1, Nublense 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Palestino 2–0 Nublense — a Palestino win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Palestino trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Nublense trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 52% versus Nublense 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 50% | Nublense 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.67 xG and Nublense 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.247 / defence 0.980 | Nublense attack 0.913 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.214. Data: built from Palestino's last 52 games and Nublense's last 52.
Result probabilities: Palestino 51% | Draw 24% | Nublense 25%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 1.96 | Draw 4.11 | Nublense 4.04. Palestino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Palestino's last 10 home games and Nublense's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Palestino 40% (last 10 home games) | Nublense 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, matchday 23 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 51% | Draw 24% | Nublense 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Palestino 1.67 / Nublense 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.247 / def 0.980 | Nublense attack 0.913 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Palestino (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Nublense xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palestino vs Nublense FAQs
What time does Palestino vs Nublense kick off?
Palestino vs Nublense kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Nublense?
Palestino 1 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Palestino vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Nublense part of?
Palestino vs Nublense is a Primera División fixture (matchday 23) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 51% chance of winning, Nublense a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Palestino and Nublense will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Palestino vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palestino's attack rating (1.25) and Nublense's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nublense's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palestino's last 52 games and Nublense's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.11
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.75
1.09
Nublense xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
5%
21.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palestino vs Nublense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Palestino and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Palestino and 1.09 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Palestino have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 23W 13D 16L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Nublense's form line: 16W 14D 22L from 52 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palestino on 1.58 PPG, Nublense on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palestino have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 25 home games (13W 5D 7L).
On the road, Nublense have gone 7W 6D 12L from their last 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palestino are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.23 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Nublense
Blended
Palestino (Home) vs Nublense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palestino
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Palestino vs Nublense Form FAQs
What form are Palestino and Nublense in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 23W 13D 16L in their last 52 games (1.58 PPG), while Nublense have gone 16W 14D 22L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Nublense away?
Palestino's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.76 PPG; Nublense away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Palestino or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Nublense in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palestino's record when hosting Nublense specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Palestino
4
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Palestino vs Nublense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Nublense?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Palestino have won 2, Nublense have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Nublense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Nublense 2-0 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 48%, Nublense 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Palestino) and 48% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palestino vs Nublense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palestino and Nublense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Palestino's recent matches and 60% of Nublense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palestino and Nublense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Palestino's recent games and 48% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Nublense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Palestino's recent matches and 64% of Nublense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palestino and Nublense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino and Nublense finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.67 xG and Nublense 1.09 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.25 / defence 0.98 against Nublense attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 51% | Draw 24% | Nublense 25%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 50%, Nublense 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Nublense's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.58 PPG, Nublense 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.