Palestino 1-4 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palestino at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Everton de Vina travel to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to take on Palestino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palestino at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palestino 1.70 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Everton de Vina, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Palestino.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Everton de Vina have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Palestino in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 47% versus Everton de Vina 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 44% | Everton de Vina 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.68 xG and Everton de Vina 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.030 / defence 0.883 | Everton de Vina attack 0.981 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.341. Data: 45 Palestino games / 45 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 49% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 26%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Everton de Vina 3.85. Palestino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Palestino 20% | Everton de Vina 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 49% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Palestino 1.68 / Everton de Vina 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.030 / def 0.883 | Everton de Vina attack 0.981 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Palestino (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Everton de Vina xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Palestino vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Palestino 1 - 4 Everton de Vina.
Where is Palestino vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Everton de Vina part of?
Palestino vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 49% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Palestino and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
Record (6 meetings): Palestino 0W | Draws 3 | Everton de Vina 3W.
What form are Palestino and Everton de Vina in?
Palestino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palestino's attack at 1.03x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
49%
2.02
24%
4.14
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.84
1.16
Everton de Vina xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
5%
20.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Palestino and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Palestino and 1.16 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Palestino have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 21W 11D 13L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina's form line: 19W 9D 17L from 45 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palestino on 1.64 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palestino have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 10W 4D 8L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Palestino are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.44 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina in 60%.
Defensively: Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 21W 11D 13L in their last 45 games (1.64 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 19W 9D 17L in their last 45 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Everton de Vina away?
Palestino's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.73 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Palestino or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palestino have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Everton de Vina won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palestino's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palestino
3
Draws
4
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 3, Everton de Vina have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palestino see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 46%, Everton de Vina 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Palestino) and 46% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Palestino's recent matches and 59% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Palestino's recent games and 46% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Palestino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Palestino 1-4 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.68 xG and Everton de Vina 1.16 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.16 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against Everton de Vina attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 49% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 26%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 44%, Everton de Vina 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.64 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.