Nublense 2-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nublense at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 21 as Nublense welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 August 2022 at 01:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nublense have posted 7W 2D 1L at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Nublense are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Nublense carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nublense register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Coquimbo Unido in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nublense have won 1, Coquimbo Unido 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Nublense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Nublense in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nublense 60% and Coquimbo Unido 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 55% | Coquimbo Unido 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 2.89 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.278 / defence 1.040 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.709 / defence 1.539. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.138. Nublense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 2.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Coquimbo Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.539 — this is suppressing Nublense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Nublense games / 20 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 79% | Draw 13% | Coquimbo Unido 8%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 1.27 | Draw 7.69 | Coquimbo Unido 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Nublense (79%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 80% | Coquimbo Unido 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Monday 8 Aug 2022, 01:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 79% | Draw 13% | Coquimbo Unido 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 54% | xG Nublense 2.89 / Coquimbo Unido 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.278 / def 1.040 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.709 / def 1.539 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Nublense (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.89
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Coquimbo Unido xG
54%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 01:45 on Monday 8 August 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Nublense 2 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 79% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 8% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nublense and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (1 meetings): Nublense 1W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido in?
Nublense (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nublense's attack at 1.28x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 2.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Nublense's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
79%
1.26
13%
7.65
8%
12.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.89
Nublense xG
Total xG
3.73
0.84
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.26
79%
Home win
7.65
13%
Draw
12.79
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
6%
18.07
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 2.89 expected goals for Nublense and 0.84 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nublense come into this having played 20 games, going 10W 6D 4L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 0.80 PPG from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nublense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nublense's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Nublense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 0.22 points per game from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coquimbo Unido's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nublense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nublense are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.15 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nublense have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Coquimbo Unido in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 10W 6D 4L in their last 20 games (1.80 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 4W 4D 12L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Nublense's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 2.22 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nublense's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Nublense
3
Draws
3
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Nublense have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Nublense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nublense see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nublense at 78%, Coquimbo Unido at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Nublense and 67% for Coquimbo Unido. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Nublense's games and 67% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Nublense's matches and 67% of Coquimbo Unido's.
Do Nublense and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nublense edge out Coquimbo Unido 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Coquimbo Unido 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 2.89 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.84 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nublense fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.28 / defence 1.04 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.71 / defence 1.54, drawn from 52/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 79% | Draw 13% | Coquimbo Unido 8%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 55%, Coquimbo Unido 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nublense arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.