Everton de Vina 1-0 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 20 as Everton de Vina welcome Palestino to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Thursday 9 September 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palestino's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 1.30 (Palestino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Palestino in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 33% versus Palestino 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 22% | Palestino 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.50 xG and Palestino 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.899 / defence 1.058 | Palestino attack 0.994 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.165. Palestino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Everton de Vina games / 18 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 42% | Draw 29% | Palestino 29%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Palestino 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 33% | Palestino 78% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Sep 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 42% | Draw 29% | Palestino 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Everton de Vina 1.50 / Palestino 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.899 / def 1.058 | Palestino attack 0.994 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Palestino xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Palestino kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 9 September 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Everton de Vina 1 - 0 Palestino.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Palestino part of?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 42% chance of winning, Palestino a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Everton de Vina and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Palestino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Palestino's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.45
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.73
1.23
Palestino xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
6%
15.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.23 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 6W 6D 6L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palestino's form line: 6W 3D 9L from 18 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.33 PPG, Palestino on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
On the road, Palestino have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.39 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Palestino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Palestino have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Palestino away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.33 PPG; Palestino away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Palestino in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Palestino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palestino have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Everton de Vina won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 4, Palestino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 33%, Palestino 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Everton de Vina) and 78% (Palestino). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Palestino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Everton de Vina's games and 78% of Palestino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Everton de Vina's matches and 78% of Palestino's.
Do Everton de Vina and Palestino tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palestino in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out Palestino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Palestino 1-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.50 xG and Palestino 1.23 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palestino landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Palestino attack 0.99 / defence 1.55, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 42% | Draw 29% | Palestino 29%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 22%, Palestino 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palestino's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.33 PPG, Palestino 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.