Everton de Vina 1-1 O'Higgins – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates O'Higgins at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton de Vina host O'Higgins at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Everton de Vina have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estadio Sausalito — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, O'Higgins stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for O'Higgins, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, O'Higgins have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton de Vina at 1.40 PPG versus O'Higgins's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Everton de Vina register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, O'Higgins in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, O'Higgins have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Everton de Vina.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with O'Higgins winning.
It is worth noting that O'Higgins have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
O'Higgins in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 62% versus O'Higgins 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 53% | O'Higgins 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.46 xG and O'Higgins 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.915 / defence 0.986 | O'Higgins attack 1.222 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.338. O'Higgins have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Everton de Vina games / 47 O'Higgins games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 35% | Draw 24% | O'Higgins 41%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | O'Higgins 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates O'Higgins as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on O'Higgins offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 60% | O'Higgins 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 35% | Draw 24% | O'Higgins 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Everton de Vina 1.46 / O'Higgins 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.915 / def 0.986 | O'Higgins attack 1.222 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: O'Higgins (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.61
O'Higgins xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins kick off?
Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins?
Everton de Vina 1 - 1 O'Higgins.
Where is Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins part of?
Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 35% chance of winning, O'Higgins a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making O'Higgins the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Everton de Vina and O'Higgins will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and O'Higgins?
Record (6 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 2 | O'Higgins 4W.
What form are Everton de Vina and O'Higgins in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. O'Higgins (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 0.92x the league average against O'Higgins's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, O'Higgins's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
O'Higgins Win
35%
2.88
24%
4.18
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
3.07
1.61
O'Higgins xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.45
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and O'Higgins expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.61 for O'Higgins, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 20W 10D 17L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
O'Higgins's form line: 15W 12D 20L from 47 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. The sample for O'Higgins is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.49 PPG, O'Higgins on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (9W 6D 8L).
On the road, O'Higgins have gone 10W 4D 9L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; O'Higgins are on 1.30 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
O'Higgins
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and O'Higgins in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 20W 10D 17L in their last 47 games (1.49 PPG), while O'Higgins have gone 15W 12D 20L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or O'Higgins away?
O'Higgins's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.43 PPG; O'Higgins away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Everton de Vina's record when hosting O'Higgins specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
6
O'Higgins
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and O'Higgins?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 1, O'Higgins have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and O'Higgins last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when O'Higgins 2-3 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and O'Higgins?
O'Higgins have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 61%, O'Higgins 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Everton de Vina) and 56% (O'Higgins). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / O'Higgins away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play O'Higgins?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Everton de Vina's games and 52% of O'Higgins's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Everton de Vina's matches and 56% of O'Higgins's.
Do Everton de Vina and O'Higgins tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, O'Higgins in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and O'Higgins share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and O'Higgins finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.46 xG and O'Higgins 1.61 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against O'Higgins attack 1.22 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 35% | Draw 24% | O'Higgins 41%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 53%, O'Higgins 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
O'Higgins's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.49 PPG, O'Higgins 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.