Everton de Vina 0-0 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nublense at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Nublense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Everton de Vina at Estadio Sausalito this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Nublense have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nublense away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Everton de Vina against 0.40 for Nublense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 2W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Nublense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nublense — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Nublense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 48% | Nublense 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 0.79 xG and Nublense 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.671 / defence 1.026 | Nublense attack 1.011 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.111. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nublense's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Everton de Vina games / 37 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 25% | Draw 31% | Nublense 44%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Nublense 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 50% | Nublense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 25% | Draw 31% | Nublense 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Everton de Vina 0.79 / Nublense 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.671 / def 1.026 | Nublense attack 1.011 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Nublense (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Nublense xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Nublense kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Everton de Vina 0 - 0 Nublense.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Nublense part of?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 25% chance of winning, Nublense a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Everton de Vina and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
Record (9 meetings): Everton de Vina 2W | Draws 3 | Nublense 4W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Nublense (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (1.01x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
25%
3.99
31%
3.26
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.94
1.15
Nublense xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
46%
2.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.64
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 16.6 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.15 for Nublense, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 25L across 60 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.22 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 9W 12D 9L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nublense's away record stands at 9W 6D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.18 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Nublense in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Nublense have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Nublense away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.30 PPG; Nublense away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Nublense in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Nublense have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 50%, Nublense 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Everton de Vina) and 47% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 33% of games; Nublense in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Nublense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 47% of Nublense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 47% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Nublense tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Nublense in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and Nublense finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 0.79 xG and Nublense 1.15 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nublense landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.67 / defence 1.03 against Nublense attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 25% | Draw 31% | Nublense 44%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Nublense 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.18 PPG, Nublense 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.