Everton de Vina 1-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Everton de Vina welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Sausalito in Primera División (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 28 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Everton de Vina's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Coquimbo Unido stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton de Vina at 1.40 PPG versus Coquimbo Unido's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Everton de Vina's last 10 home games and Coquimbo Unido's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Everton de Vina: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Coquimbo Unido, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Jul 2023, ended Everton de Vina 2–0 Coquimbo Unido — a Everton de Vina win.
The head-to-head data gives Everton de Vina an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 55% versus Coquimbo Unido 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 42% | Coquimbo Unido 55%). Note also that Coquimbo Unido surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Everton de Vina recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.35 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.066 / defence 0.844 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.883 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.250. Data: built from Everton de Vina's last 39 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 39.
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 26%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.15 | Draw 3.61 | Coquimbo Unido 3.87. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Everton de Vina 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though recent form (Everton de Vina's last 10 home games and Coquimbo Unido's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Everton de Vina 80% (last 10 home games) | Coquimbo Unido 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, matchday 10 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Everton de Vina 1.35 / Coquimbo Unido 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.066 / def 0.844 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.883 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Coquimbo Unido xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido FAQs
What time does Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Everton de Vina 1 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido is a Primera División fixture (matchday 10) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 46% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (1.07) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Everton de Vina's last 39 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.28
0.93
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.93 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 22W 21D 17L from 60 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 27L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.45 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 11W 11D 8L from their last 30 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 8W 6D 16L across their last 30 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.28 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Everton de Vina (Home) vs Coquimbo Unido (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido Form FAQs
What form are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 22 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton de Vina have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 May 2026: Everton de Vina 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 53%, Coquimbo Unido 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton de Vina) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Everton de Vina's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 67% of Coquimbo Unido's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.35 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.93 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 26%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 42%, Coquimbo Unido 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.45 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.