Deportes Limache 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deportes Limache face Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Deportes Limache welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza in Primera División (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 16 February 2025 at 23:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Everton de Vina — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.33 xG and Everton de Vina 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Everton de Vina attack 1.159 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.219. Data: built from Deportes Limache's last 0 games and Everton de Vina's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 44%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 3.18 | Draw 4.13 | Everton de Vina 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Deportes Limache 0 games, Everton de Vina 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, matchday 1 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Deportes Limache 1.33 / Everton de Vina 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Everton de Vina attack 1.159 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Everton de Vina xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina FAQs
What time does Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Deportes Limache 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina part of?
Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina is a Primera División fixture (matchday 1) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 31% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Deportes Limache's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Deportes Limache's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Deportes Limache's last 0 games and Everton de Vina's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
31%
3.18
24%
4.13
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
2.96
1.62
Everton de Vina xG
3.18
31%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
6%
16.15
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 1.62 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Deportes Limache (Home) vs Everton de Vina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from February 2025. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Everton de Vina have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2026, when Everton de Vina won Deportes Limache 0-3 Everton de Vina.
Deportes Limache's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Limache
2
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Deportes Limache have won 0, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Deportes Limache 0-3 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 1, as Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.33 xG and Everton de Vina 1.62 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Everton de Vina attack 1.16 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 44%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.