D. Melipilla 1-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as D. Melipilla take on Nublense.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
D. Melipilla and Nublense meet at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 April 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. Melipilla 0.98 xG and Nublense 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. Melipilla attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | Nublense attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.867 / away 1.114. Data: 1 D. Melipilla games / 1 Nublense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: D. Melipilla 28% | Draw 38% | Nublense 34%. Fair-value odds: D. Melipilla 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | Nublense 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. Melipilla vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Pintana • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. Melipilla 28% | Draw 38% | Nublense 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG D. Melipilla 0.98 / Nublense 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: D. Melipilla attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | Nublense attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.867 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
D. Melipilla xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Nublense xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. Melipilla vs Nublense kick off?
D. Melipilla vs Nublense kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 April 2021 at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana.
What was the final score in D. Melipilla vs Nublense?
D. Melipilla 1 - 1 Nublense.
Where is D. Melipilla vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana.
What competition is D. Melipilla vs Nublense part of?
D. Melipilla vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. Melipilla vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives D. Melipilla a 28% chance of winning, Nublense a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in D. Melipilla vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both D. Melipilla and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will D. Melipilla vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. Melipilla and Nublense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are D. Melipilla and Nublense in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from D. Melipilla's attack rating (0.98) and Nublense's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.85x) against D. Melipilla's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.57
38%
2.61
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
D. Melipilla xG
Total xG
2.07
1.09
Nublense xG
3.57
28%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.8 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. Melipilla vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are D. Melipilla and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for D. Melipilla and 1.09 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for D. Melipilla vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. Melipilla
Pre-Season
Nublense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
D. Melipilla
1
Draws
1
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. Melipilla and Nublense?
From 2 meetings on record, D. Melipilla have won 0, Nublense have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did D. Melipilla and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2021, when Nublense 3-0 D. Melipilla.
Who has won more matches between D. Melipilla and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. Melipilla home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
D. Melipilla and Nublense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana, Regular Season - 2, as D. Melipilla and Nublense drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. Melipilla 0.98 xG and Nublense 1.09 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. Melipilla attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Nublense attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it D. Melipilla 28% | Draw 38% | Nublense 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.