Curico Unido 1-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Curico Unido at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido meet at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Primera División, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 January 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Curico Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Curico Unido have posted 7W 0D 3L at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Curico Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja than their overall form suggests.
Coquimbo Unido (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Curico Unido, 1.10 for Coquimbo Unido — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Curico Unido 1W, Coquimbo Unido 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Curico Unido — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Curico Unido 53% versus Coquimbo Unido 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Curico Unido 50% | Coquimbo Unido 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.51 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 1.057 / defence 0.965 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.937 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.293. Data: 30 Curico Unido games / 30 Coquimbo Unido games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 45% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 29%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Coquimbo Unido 3.45. Curico Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Curico Unido are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Curico Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Curico Unido 50% | Coquimbo Unido 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jan 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 45% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Curico Unido 1.51 / Coquimbo Unido 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 1.057 / def 0.965 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.937 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Curico Unido (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Coquimbo Unido xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 23 January 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido?
Curico Unido 1 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 45% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Curico Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (2 meetings): Curico Unido 1W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido in?
Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Curico Unido's attack rating (1.06) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.94x) against Curico Unido's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Curico Unido Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.92
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
2.68
1.17
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Curico Unido and 1.17 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Curico Unido come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 10D 7L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 0.90 PPG from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Curico Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Curico Unido's home form reads 10W 1D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Curico Unido are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 0.60 points per game from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Curico Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Curico Unido are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.07 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Curico Unido have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Curico Unido have gone 13W 10D 7L in their last 30 games (1.63 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Curico Unido at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Curico Unido's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Curico Unido at home: 2.07 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Curico Unido or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Curico Unido have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Curico Unido won 3-0 on 28 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Curico Unido have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Curico Unido
1
Draws
1
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido?
From 4 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 13 July 2023, when Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido?
Curico Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Curico Unido 33%, Coquimbo Unido 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Curico Unido) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Curico Unido keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Curico Unido play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Curico Unido's recent matches and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Curico Unido's matches and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's.
Do Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Curico Unido have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Curico Unido edge out Coquimbo Unido 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Curico Unido beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.51 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.17 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 45% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 29%, with Curico Unido to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Curico Unido 50%, Coquimbo Unido 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Curico Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Curico Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Curico Unido (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.