Coquimbo Unido 1-0 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coquimbo Unido face U. Catolica.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso plays host to Coquimbo Unido versus U. Catolica in Primera División (matchday 2). Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Coquimbo Unido's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Coquimbo Unido have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
U. Catolica have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, U. Catolica have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for U. Catolica and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Coquimbo Unido 2–1 U. Catolica — a Coquimbo Unido win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Coquimbo Unido half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
U. Catolica half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 60% versus U. Catolica 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 52% | U. Catolica 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.44 xG and U. Catolica 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.930 / defence 0.926 | U. Catolica attack 1.001 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.232. Data: built from Coquimbo Unido's last 31 games and U. Catolica's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 30%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.29 | Draw 3.76 | U. Catolica 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Coquimbo Unido's last 10 home games and U. Catolica's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Coquimbo Unido 40% (last 10 home games) | U. Catolica 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Coquimbo Unido 31 games, U. Catolica 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, matchday 2 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.44 / U. Catolica 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.930 / def 0.926 | U. Catolica attack 1.001 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.14
U. Catolica xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica FAQs
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 0 U. Catolica.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica is a Primera División fixture (matchday 2) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 44% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (0.93) and U. Catolica's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — U. Catolica's attack (1.00x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Coquimbo Unido's last 31 games and U. Catolica's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.76
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.58
1.14
U. Catolica xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
7%
14.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.14 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 14D 19L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, U. Catolica sit at 1.47 PPG from 60 outings (24W 16D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Coquimbo Unido against 1.47 for U. Catolica. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 16W 8D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, U. Catolica have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 30 away games (13W 8D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.53 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
U. Catolica
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido (Home) vs U. Catolica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
U. Catolica
Current Season
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica Form FAQs
What form are Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or U. Catolica away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.87 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 26 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
U. Catolica have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coquimbo Unido won U. Catolica 0-3 Coquimbo Unido on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against U. Catolica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
5
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, U. Catolica have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 August 2026: Coquimbo Unido 1-2 U. Catolica.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 60%, U. Catolica 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Coquimbo Unido) and 63% (U. Catolica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; U. Catolica in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 53% of U. Catolica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 63% of U. Catolica's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 66% of U. Catolica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out U. Catolica 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat U. Catolica 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.44 xG and U. Catolica 1.14 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. U. Catolica landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against U. Catolica attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 30%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 52%, U. Catolica 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG, U. Catolica 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.