Coquimbo Unido 0-1 A. Italiano – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates A. Italiano at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees A. Italiano travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 13 September 2022, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Coquimbo Unido have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso than their overall form suggests.
A. Italiano — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for A. Italiano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
A. Italiano's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. A. Italiano are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Coquimbo Unido register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, A. Italiano in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Coquimbo Unido have won 0, A. Italiano 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Coquimbo Unido in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
A. Italiano in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 62% and A. Italiano 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 58% | A. Italiano 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.64 xG and A. Italiano 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.955 / defence 1.177 | A. Italiano attack 1.401 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.121. A. Italiano have an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Coquimbo Unido games / 56 A. Italiano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 35% | Draw 22% | A. Italiano 43%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | A. Italiano 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, A. Italiano are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on A. Italiano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 60% | A. Italiano 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 35% | Draw 22% | A. Italiano 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.64 / A. Italiano 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.955 / def 1.177 | A. Italiano attack 1.401 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: A. Italiano (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.85
A. Italiano xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano kicked off at 22:00 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano?
Coquimbo Unido 0 - 1 A. Italiano.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 35% chance of winning, A. Italiano a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making A. Italiano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano?
Record (1 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 0W | Draws 1 | A. Italiano 0W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. A. Italiano (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 0.95x the league average against A. Italiano's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, A. Italiano's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
A. Italiano Win
35%
2.88
22%
4.50
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
3.49
1.85
A. Italiano xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
5%
18.27
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.85 for A. Italiano, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Coquimbo Unido have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 5W 5D 14L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
A. Italiano's form line: 9W 7D 8L from 24 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for A. Italiano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, A. Italiano are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coquimbo Unido.
Venue Form
On home soil, Coquimbo Unido have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Coquimbo Unido are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, A. Italiano have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; A. Italiano are on 1.50 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; A. Italiano in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
A. Italiano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 5W 5D 14L in their last 24 games (0.83 PPG), while A. Italiano have gone 9W 7D 8L in their last 24 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or A. Italiano away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.42 PPG; A. Italiano away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2026, when Coquimbo Unido won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting A. Italiano specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Coquimbo Unido
3
Draws
1
A. Italiano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, A. Italiano have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 3-0 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
A. Italiano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Coquimbo Unido at 67%, A. Italiano at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Coquimbo Unido and 67% for A. Italiano. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / A. Italiano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play A. Italiano?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 75% of A. Italiano's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 67% of A. Italiano's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, A. Italiano in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as A. Italiano edge out Coquimbo Unido 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
A. Italiano beat Coquimbo Unido 0-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.64 xG and A. Italiano 1.85 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.6 short of their projected output. A. Italiano landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against A. Italiano attack 1.40 / defence 1.16, drawn from 24/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 35% | Draw 22% | A. Italiano 43%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 58%, A. Italiano 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
A. Italiano's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, A. Italiano arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. A. Italiano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.