Coquimbo Unido 1-1 A. Italiano – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coquimbo Unido face A. Italiano.

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Analysis & Preview

A. Italiano travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido in Primera División (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Coquimbo Unido have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Coquimbo Unido have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

A. Italiano — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

A. Italiano's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Coquimbo Unido 1.70 PPG, A. Italiano 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, A. Italiano 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Mar 2024, ended Coquimbo Unido 1–0 A. Italiano — a Coquimbo Unido win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Coquimbo Unido in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

A. Italiano in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 62% versus A. Italiano 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 56% | A. Italiano 54%). Note also that A. Italiano surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Coquimbo Unido recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.37 xG and A. Italiano 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.998 / defence 0.880 | A. Italiano attack 1.045 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.237. Data: built from Coquimbo Unido's last 50 games and A. Italiano's last 50.

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 42% | Draw 27% | A. Italiano 31%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.38 | Draw 3.67 | A. Italiano 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Coquimbo Unido 50% (last 10 home games) | A. Italiano 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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