Colo Colo 0-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Colo Colo at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colo Colo vs Cobresal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cobresal make the trip to Estadio Monumental David Arellano to face Colo Colo in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 21:30 UTC.
Form
Colo Colo (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Colo Colo have gone 4W 2D 2L this season (8 games, 1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Monumental David Arellano. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.75 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Monumental David Arellano this season.
Cobresal have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 4L across 8 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Colo Colo's 2.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Cobresal's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Colo Colo half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 44% versus Cobresal 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 38% | Cobresal 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.41 xG and Cobresal 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.061 / defence 0.853 | Cobresal attack 0.773 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.160. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Colo Colo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Colo Colo games / 16 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 50% | Draw 33% | Cobresal 18%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 2.00 | Draw 3.03 | Cobresal 5.56. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 38% | Cobresal 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 50% | Draw 33% | Cobresal 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Colo Colo 1.41 / Cobresal 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.061 / def 0.853 | Cobresal attack 0.773 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Cobresal xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Cobresal kick off?
Colo Colo vs Cobresal kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Cobresal?
Colo Colo 0 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Colo Colo vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Cobresal part of?
Colo Colo vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 50% chance of winning, Cobresal a 18% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Colo Colo and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Cobresal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colo Colo and Cobresal in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Cobresal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Colo Colo's attack at 1.06x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.77x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
50%
2.01
33%
3.07
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.17
0.77
Cobresal xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
4%
22.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.77 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Colo Colo's recent record stands at 10W 3D 3L from 16 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 6L across 16 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colo Colo by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cobresal heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Colo Colo have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cobresal's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Colo Colo are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.19 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Cobresal in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 10W 3D 3L in their last 16 games (2.06 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Cobresal away?
Colo Colo's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 1.86 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Cobresal in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 6-0 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Colo Colo
1
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 6, Cobresal have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Colo Colo 3-0 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Cobresal?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 43%, Cobresal 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Colo Colo) and 57% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Cobresal in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 57% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Colo Colo's recent games and 57% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Cobresal tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cobresal defy the odds to beat Colo Colo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Colo Colo 0-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.41 xG and Cobresal 0.77 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Colo Colo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.06 / defence 0.85 against Cobresal attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 50% | Draw 33% | Cobresal 18%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cobresal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 38%, Cobresal 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Cobresal's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Cobresal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Cobresal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.