Cobresal 3-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cobresal at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host Union La Calera at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022 at 23:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Cobresal — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estadio El Cobre this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cobresal 1.10 PPG, Union La Calera 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cobresal have won 1, Union La Calera 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Cobresal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cobresal in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Union La Calera in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 57% versus Union La Calera 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 51% | Union La Calera 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.55 xG and Union La Calera 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 0.950 / defence 0.915 | Union La Calera attack 0.910 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 0.994. Data: 49 Cobresal games / 49 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 53% | Draw 29% | Union La Calera 19%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Union La Calera 5.26. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Cobresal 50% | Union La Calera 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 23:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 53% | Draw 29% | Union La Calera 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Cobresal 1.55 / Union La Calera 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 0.950 / def 0.915 | Union La Calera attack 0.910 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.503 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Union La Calera xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Union La Calera kick off?
Cobresal vs Union La Calera kicked off at 23:15 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Cobresal 3 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Cobresal vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Union La Calera part of?
Cobresal vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 53% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cobresal and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
Record (1 meetings): Cobresal 1W | Draws 0 | Union La Calera 0W.
What form are Cobresal and Union La Calera in?
Cobresal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (0.95) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
53%
1.90
29%
3.48
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.38
0.83
Union La Calera xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
4%
25.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.83 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cobresal's recent record stands at 19W 10D 20L from 49 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union La Calera, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 17L across 49 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobresal on 1.37 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cobresal have managed 12W 6D 6L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union La Calera's away record stands at 8W 8D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.08 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Union La Calera away?
Cobresal's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.75 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2026, when Cobresal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cobresal's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cobresal
1
Draws
3
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 6, Union La Calera have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 58%, Union La Calera 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cobresal) and 58% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union La Calera in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Cobresal's games and 54% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cobresal's recent games and 58% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Union La Calera 3-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.55 xG and Union La Calera 0.83 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Union La Calera attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 53% | Draw 29% | Union La Calera 19%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 51%, Union La Calera 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Union La Calera's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.37 PPG, Union La Calera 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.