Cobresal 1-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cobresal at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cobresal vs Union Espanola encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cobresal and Union Espanola meet at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador in Primera División, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Cobresal (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Cobresal have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Espanola's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Cobresal against 1.30 for Union Espanola. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cobresal lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Cobresal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 59% versus Union Espanola 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 61% | Union Espanola 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.81 xG and Union Espanola 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.039 / defence 0.991 | Union Espanola attack 0.900 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.128. Data: 54 Cobresal games / 54 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 56% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 21%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Union Espanola 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Cobresal (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 70% | Union Espanola 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 56% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Cobresal 1.81 / Union Espanola 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.039 / def 0.991 | Union Espanola attack 0.900 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Union Espanola xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Union Espanola kick off?
Cobresal vs Union Espanola kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Cobresal 1 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Cobresal vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What competition is Cobresal vs Union Espanola part of?
Cobresal vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 56% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cobresal and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
Record (9 meetings): Cobresal 4W | Draws 3 | Union Espanola 2W.
What form are Cobresal and Union Espanola in?
Cobresal (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Union Espanola (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.04) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.90x) against Cobresal's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.36
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.81
1.00
Union Espanola xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
29.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.00 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 14D 21L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Espanola's form line: 19W 8D 27L from 54 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Cobresal against 1.20 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 1.85 PPG from 26 outings (14W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 6W 6D 14L from 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.50 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 19W 8D 27L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Union Espanola away?
Cobresal's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.85 PPG; Union Espanola away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cobresal have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cobresal
3
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 5, Union Espanola have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Cobresal 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union Espanola see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 77%, Union Espanola 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Cobresal and 50% for Union Espanola. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Espanola in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Union Espanola?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Cobresal's games and 46% of Union Espanola's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Cobresal's matches and 50% of Union Espanola's.
Do Cobresal and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Union Espanola 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Union Espanola 1-0 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.81 xG and Union Espanola 1.00 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cobresal fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Union Espanola landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Union Espanola attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 56% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 21%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 61%, Union Espanola 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Espanola's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.31 PPG, Union Espanola 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.