Cobresal 3-1 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours U. Catolica (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cobresal face U. Catolica.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host U. Catolica at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio El Cobre — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
U. Catolica's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. U. Catolica are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Cobresal have won 1, U. Catolica 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cobresal in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
U. Catolica in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 65% versus U. Catolica 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 69% | U. Catolica 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.52 xG and U. Catolica 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.243 / defence 1.298 | U. Catolica attack 0.988 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.188. Data: 51 Cobresal games / 51 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 38% | Draw 24% | U. Catolica 38%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | U. Catolica 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 80% | U. Catolica 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 38% | Draw 24% | U. Catolica 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Cobresal 1.52 / U. Catolica 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.243 / def 1.298 | U. Catolica attack 0.988 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.52
U. Catolica xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs U. Catolica kick off?
Cobresal vs U. Catolica kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Cobresal 3 - 1 U. Catolica.
Where is Cobresal vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs U. Catolica part of?
Cobresal vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 38% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cobresal and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
Record (6 meetings): Cobresal 1W | Draws 2 | U. Catolica 3W.
What form are Cobresal and U. Catolica in?
Cobresal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. U. Catolica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.24x the league average against U. Catolica's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
38%
2.64
24%
4.15
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.05
1.52
U. Catolica xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cobresal and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.52 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 20W 16D 15L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
U. Catolica's form line: 22W 14D 15L from 51 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobresal on 1.49 PPG, U. Catolica on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 2.00 PPG from 26 outings (15W 7D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 12W 7D 7L from 26 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.55 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
U. Catolica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 20W 16D 15L in their last 51 games (1.49 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 22W 14D 15L in their last 51 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or U. Catolica away?
Cobresal's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.00 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cobresal's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cobresal
3
Draws
4
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, U. Catolica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cobresal 3-2 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 73%, U. Catolica 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Cobresal and 65% for U. Catolica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica in 31%; U. Catolica in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play U. Catolica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Cobresal's games and 54% of U. Catolica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Cobresal's matches and 65% of U. Catolica's.
Do Cobresal and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over U. Catolica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat U. Catolica 3-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.52 xG and U. Catolica 1.52 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.24 / defence 1.30 against U. Catolica attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 38% | Draw 24% | U. Catolica 38%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 69%, U. Catolica 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
U. Catolica's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.49 PPG, U. Catolica 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. U. Catolica (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.