Cobresal 2-0 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cobresal at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Huachipato fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Huachipato travel to Estadio El Cobre to take on Cobresal. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 July 2023, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Cobresal have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal at Estadio El Cobre this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Cobre. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Huachipato stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Huachipato's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cobresal 1.80 PPG, Huachipato 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cobresal, 2 for Huachipato and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Huachipato winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Huachipato in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 56% versus Huachipato 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 48% | Huachipato 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.34 xG and Huachipato 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.135 / defence 0.771 | Huachipato attack 1.005 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.229. Cobresal's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Cobresal games / 46 Huachipato games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 46% | Draw 28% | Huachipato 27%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Huachipato 3.70. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cobresal 40% | Huachipato 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jul 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 46% | Draw 28% | Huachipato 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Cobresal 1.34 / Huachipato 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.135 / def 0.771 | Huachipato attack 1.005 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Huachipato xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Huachipato kick off?
Cobresal vs Huachipato kicked off at 22:00 on Friday 14 July 2023 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Huachipato?
Cobresal 2 - 0 Huachipato.
Where is Cobresal vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Huachipato part of?
Cobresal vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 46% chance of winning, Huachipato a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cobresal and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Huachipato?
Record (3 meetings): Cobresal 1W | Draws 0 | Huachipato 2W.
What form are Cobresal and Huachipato in?
Cobresal (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Huachipato (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.14x the league average against Huachipato's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Huachipato's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
46%
2.20
28%
3.60
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.29
0.95
Huachipato xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
7%
14.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.95 for Huachipato, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cobresal come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 11D 15L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Huachipato sit at 1.39 PPG from 46 outings (19W 7D 20L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobresal on 1.54 PPG, Huachipato on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cobresal's home form reads 15W 5D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Huachipato have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cobresal are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Huachipato are on 1.24 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Huachipato
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Huachipato in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 20W 11D 15L in their last 46 games (1.54 PPG), while Huachipato have gone 19W 7D 20L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Huachipato away?
Cobresal's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.17 PPG; Huachipato away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cobresal and Huachipato runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cobresal's record when hosting Huachipato specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cobresal
2
Draws
3
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Huachipato?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 5, Huachipato have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Huachipato 3-3 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Huachipato?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 48%, Huachipato 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Cobresal) and 39% (Huachipato).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Huachipato in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Huachipato?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cobresal's recent matches and 44% of Huachipato's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Huachipato usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Cobresal's recent games and 39% of Huachipato's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Huachipato tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Huachipato in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Huachipato.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Huachipato 2-0 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.34 xG and Huachipato 0.95 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Huachipato landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.14 / defence 0.77 against Huachipato attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 46% | Draw 28% | Huachipato 27%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 48%, Huachipato 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Huachipato's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.54 PPG, Huachipato 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.