Cobresal 2-3 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cobresal face Coquimbo Unido.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División (matchday 13). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 00:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cobresal stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cobresal have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cobresal are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Coquimbo Unido have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cobresal at 1.70 PPG versus Coquimbo Unido's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Cobresal's games and 80% of Coquimbo Unido's (from Cobresal's last 10 home games and Coquimbo Unido's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Cobresal have won 2, Coquimbo Unido 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Cobresal 3–2 Coquimbo Unido — a Cobresal win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cobresal trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cobresal 58% and Coquimbo Unido 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 55% | Coquimbo Unido 55%). Note also that Coquimbo Unido surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Cobresal recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.46 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.108 / defence 1.149 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.909 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.404. Data: built from Cobresal's last 42 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 41.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 38% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 38%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.66 | Draw 4.06 | Coquimbo Unido 2.65. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Cobresal 38% and Coquimbo Unido 38%, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cobresal's last 10 home games and Coquimbo Unido's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cobresal 60% (last 10 home games) | Coquimbo Unido 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, matchday 13 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 38% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Cobresal 1.46 / Coquimbo Unido 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.108 / def 1.149 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.909 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Coquimbo Unido xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido FAQs
What time does Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Cobresal 2 - 3 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido is a Primera División fixture (matchday 13) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 38% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.11) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cobresal's last 42 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
38%
2.66
25%
4.06
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.93
1.47
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.47 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 28W 14D 18L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 22W 11D 27L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobresal on 1.63 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 2.20 PPG from their last 30 home games (20W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 8W 6D 16L from their last 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.28 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Cobresal (Home) vs Coquimbo Unido (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cobresal
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido Form FAQs
What form are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Cobresal's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.20 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Cobresal's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cobresal
1
Draws
6
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cobresal have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Cobresal 3-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 57%, Coquimbo Unido 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cobresal) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cobresal's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cobresal's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Cobresal's recent matches and 67% of Coquimbo Unido's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Cobresal 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Cobresal 2-3 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.46 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.47 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.11 / defence 1.15 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.91 / defence 0.86, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 38% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 38%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 55%, Coquimbo Unido 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.63 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.