Cobresal 2-1 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cobresal at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cobresal vs Antofagasta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antofagasta make the trip to Estadio El Cobre to face Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Monday 4 July 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Cobresal (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estadio El Cobre — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Antofagasta have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antofagasta's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Cobresal's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cobresal lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Cobresal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Antofagasta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 57% versus Antofagasta 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 51% | Antofagasta 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.26 xG and Antofagasta 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 0.907 / defence 0.888 | Antofagasta attack 0.824 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 0.984. Data: 47 Cobresal games / 47 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 48% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 20%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Antofagasta 5.00. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 50% | Antofagasta 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Monday 4 Jul 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 48% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Cobresal 1.26 / Antofagasta 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 0.907 / def 0.888 | Antofagasta attack 0.824 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.461 / away 0.984 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Antofagasta xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Antofagasta kick off?
Cobresal vs Antofagasta kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 4 July 2022 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Antofagasta?
Cobresal 2 - 1 Antofagasta.
Where is Cobresal vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Antofagasta part of?
Cobresal vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 48% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cobresal and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Antofagasta?
Record (3 meetings): Cobresal 2W | Draws 0 | Antofagasta 1W.
What form are Cobresal and Antofagasta in?
Cobresal (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Antofagasta (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 0.91x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (0.82x) against Cobresal's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
48%
2.07
31%
3.20
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cobresal xG
Total xG
1.98
0.72
Antofagasta xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.72 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 18W 10D 19L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antofagasta's form line: 14W 16D 17L from 47 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Cobresal against 1.23 for Antofagasta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (11W 6D 7L).
On the road, Antofagasta have gone 4W 10D 10L from 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cobresal are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 0.98 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Antofagasta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 18W 10D 19L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 14W 16D 17L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Antofagasta away?
Cobresal's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.62 PPG; Antofagasta away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Cobresal have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cobresal
0
Draws
1
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, Antofagasta have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2022, when Cobresal 2-1 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Antofagasta?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 58%, Antofagasta 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cobresal) and 29% (Antofagasta).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antofagasta in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Antofagasta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Cobresal's recent matches and 46% of Antofagasta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cobresal's recent games and 29% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Antofagasta tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Antofagasta 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Antofagasta 2-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.26 xG and Antofagasta 0.72 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Antofagasta attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 48% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 20%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 51%, Antofagasta 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Antofagasta's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.36 PPG, Antofagasta 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.